Commentary: Arkansas Democrats have their best opening in years. What if they still can’t win?

Commentary

Long before it was Trump country, Arkansas was the Democratic holdout among Southern states, a lonely bluish island surrounded by red.

Heading into Election Day, state Democrats may have to grapple with the inverse situation if Arkansas remains solidly red in the middle of what many are predicting could be a blue wave.

State Democrats have been increasingly optimistic about their chances of an upset in a state where they haven’t won statewide or federal office in 16 years. There’s good reason for that.

President Donald Trump’s low approval numbers, an unpopular war in Iran, anti-incumbent sentiment and high prices that have hit the state’s farmers particularly hard have created the best environment for Democrats in Arkansas in years.

But there are enough warning signs to temper that enthusiasm, and they point to longer term challenges the party will need to address if they can’t capitalize on such a favorable climate.

The latest sign of trouble came from the same pollsters who boosted the party’s hopes just a couple months ago. Polling this month from Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College showed Republican U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton having a 9 percentage point lead over Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner in his reelection bid.

The poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, was a major swing from Talk Business’ August poll that showed the race statistically tied, with Shoffner holding a lead that was within the margin of error.

The numbers were even starker for the governor’s race, which showed Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders holding a double-digit lead over Democratic challenger state Sen. Fred Love. The poll showed 11% of respondents supporting Libertarian Colt Shelby.

There’s been a dearth of polling in Arkansas, and it’s dangerous to read too much into only two polls. The polling comes as Democrats face a lack of resources and national support that could be the biggest obstacles in the midterms here.

One of the most notable storylines nationally about the midterms is how bullish Democrats have become about their chances in predominantly Republican states where Trump won two years ago. They’ve invested in red states like Kansas, Texas and South Carolina. Even neighboring state campaigns for governor in Oklahoma and the U.S. Senate in Mississippi have received a late infusion of spending from the national party.

But Arkansas’ races for Senate and governor appear to be mostly off the national party’s radar. Political forecasters have labeled the race for governor as solidly Republican, and Love has struggled in fundraising.

In the Senate race, Shoffner has received some national attention. But nearly all forecasters have also rated the race in Cotton’s favor. A major exception is the Almanac of American Politics, which recently moved the race to from solid to “likely” Republican.

National Democrats have mostly steered clear of the race, something Shoffner has pointed to as a plus. Her campaign touted how she’s received “zero investment” from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in a recent release. And when former Vice President Kamala Harris spoke at a state Democratic Party fundraiser earlier this year, Shoffner made a point of keeping her distance from the event.

At the same time, Cotton and Republican groups have been heavily outspending Shoffner. The Republican incumbent lawmaker’s campaign has about $4 million more in the bank than Shoffner. America One, a conservative super PAC, has spent more than $4.4 million on the race so far this year.

The spending comes nowhere close to the more than $50 million that was spent by both sides in 2014, when Cotton unseated then-Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor. But the figures highlight the gap Democrats face in getting their message out to voters, especially with Cotton repeatedly hammering Shoffner over issues like immigration.

The more level playing field could come in Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District, where Republican U.S. Rep. French Hill is trying to fend off a challenge from Chris Jones.

Jones has had an assist from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as well as from national Democratic figures like Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, who has put more than $1 million into the race. Hill has also had outside help, with two cryptocurrency-focused PACs spending on the race.

It’s not the first time both national parties have spent heavily on the race. But the environment could be more difficult after 2021’s redistricting made the 2nd District more favorable to Republicans by carving out sections of Little Rock.

Despite the challenges, there’s still room for hope for Democrats. The first day of early voting in heavily Democratic Pulaski County far outpaced first day numbers in the past two midterm elections. And how aggressively Cotton and Hill are blanketing the airwaves with ads speaks as loudly as any polls about how competitive they view their races.

The pivotal question for Democrats after the votes are tallied on Nov. 3 may not be who ultimately wins, but whether the party creates something durable that gives them a shot in a post-Trump era.